Predictions and Resolutions for 2010

‘Tis the season for prognostications, professional and amateur alike, to hit the air. Kunstler has his out, with all optimism he traditionally brings to the table. Sharon Astyk’s are promised, The Oil Drum is and will continue to provide, as will countless others.

I’m not going to make an enumerated list of predictions, because that’s not really my strong suit. Plus what resulted from the Bear Stearns blowup in 2008 was so savage and bizarre that any attempts to predict the details of 2009 before would have been hopeless. I’ll just say this: thought 2009 was bad? 2009 was a warm-up for 2010. The economic recovery we keep hearing about is the result of the accounting time bomb known as the dollar-carry trade, and has nothing to do with a resumption of healthy economic activity. The housing bubble, like every other bubble in the history of currency, will not magically re-inflate. Paper capital that was vaporized with the collapse of the mortgage-backed paper trade will not be discovered intact under the nation’s Couch or in the back pocket of the nation’s Other Pants. We are, simply put, insolvent. What will that mean in practical terms for 2010? I won’t hazard to guess, except that it won’t be pretty for lower and middle class folks. Also, I can predict that the government isn’t going to exert any more effort trying to resolve the problems the lower and middle classes face in 2010 than it did in 2009. We were on our own then, and we’ll be on our own next year.

While taking out the trash this afternoon, I ran into Michael, our neighbor from across the street. Michael’s a great guy and good neighbor. He’s watched after our hens and kept the strawberries watered when we were away this summer. A landscaper by trade, Michael is developing a keen interest in vegetable gardening and local food production, because he knows the score and understands as well as I do that unless you’re running cattle, sheep or goats, grass doesn’t do a thing for you. And he’s not the only one of this mindset in the neighborhood. A few doors down, we have new neighbors who ripped out the lavish landscaping the previous owners (erstwhile property flippers) put in place for the sale, and I know there’s a coop in that house’s backyard as well, though I can’t say if they have chickens now or not.

This is foundation for a community microfarming co-op. So, while I won’t commit to making any predictions for the coming year, I will make the following resolutions:

1. Meet with everyone on the block that I know or suspect is starting to grow vegetables or otherwise produce their own food.

2. Set up a big potluck at our place to talk about coordinating efforts. That means everything from going in together to buy bulk compost to watching each other’s gardens during vacation times to coordinating planning so that we can compliment each other’s planting and share the produce. I’m already trading eggs for Michael’s plums, for example. There’s a lot of room to expand this, particularly if we can pull more families into the mix.

3. At the end of Summer, host a massive canning party. Neither Michael nor I know a great deal about canning or food preservation, but that’s a key skill we’ll need to cultivate in the coming months. And many hands make light work, as the saying goes.

My first piece of advice for 2010 for my readers would be not to sweat the details of what 2010 is likely to bring, just accept the notion that bad times are upon us. Your neighbors are likely to be a better source of help than the fools spending your tax money, so get to know the people who surround you, do them a good turn and find out how you can work together in the new year. They’re a lot closer to you than your state rep or congress-critter, and they’re a lot more likely to be in the same boat.